Category Archives: ECONOMIC CRASH 2017(SEPT)

11 Facts That Prove That The U.S. Economy In 2017 Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Prepare for Change

By Michael Snyder,

There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year.  It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times.  As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.  Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening.  The following are 11 facts that prove that the U.S. economy in 2017 is in far worse shape than it was in 2016…

#1 It is being projected that there will be more than 8,000 retail store closings in the United States in 2017, and that will far surpass the former peak of 6,163 store closings that we witnessed in 2008.

#2 The number of retailers that have filed for bankruptcy so far in 2017 has already surpassed the total for the entire year of 2016.

#3 So far in 2017, an astounding 49 million square feet of retail space has closed down in the United States.  At this pace, approximately 147 million square feet will be shut down by the end of the year, and that would absolutely shatter the all-time record of 115 million square feet that was shut down in 2001.

#4 The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is projecting that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter of 2017 will come in at just 0.5 percent.  If that pace continues for the rest of the year, it will be the worst year for U.S. economic growth since the last recession.

#5 Restaurants are experiencing their toughest stretch since the last recession, and in March things continued to get even worse

Foot traffic at chain restaurants in March dropped 3.4% from a year ago. Menu prices couldn’t be increased enough to make up for it, and same-store sales fell 1.1%. The least bad region was the Western US, where sales inched up 1.2% year-over-year and traffic fell only 1.7%, according to TDn2K’s Restaurant Industry Snapshot. The worst was the NY-NJ Region, where sales plunged 4.6% and foot traffic 6.3%.

This comes after a dismal February, when foot traffic had dropped 5% year-over-year, and same-store sales 3.7%….

Source: 11 Facts That Prove That The U.S. Economy In 2017 Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Prepare for Change

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Time Is Running Out Fast: Are You Ready for What’s Coming? Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About This?! (Videos) Mr Doom, Jason A 

 

4-23-17 From Mr Doom

Time Is Fast Running Out: Are You Ready for What’s Coming?? (April 23, 2017)

From Jason A

Why is this Not Being Talked About… (2017-2018 EVENTS)

 

Source: Time Is Running Out Fast: Are You Ready for What’s Coming? Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About This?! (Videos) Mr Doom, Jason A | Alternative

Captains of Dollar Are Panicked, US Govt Will Default -Bill Holter, Greg Hunter Video 

Market expert and financial writer Bill Holter says elite were in a “panic” last week to try to push down the price of gold and silver. Holter explains, “You have to understand that gold is the direct competitor versus the dollar.  Other currencies in the world compete with the dollar, but the dollar is the reserve currency.  It supplanted gold in 1971.  Gold and the dollar are direct competitors or arch enemies, or whatever you want to call them.  The best way to make the dollar look good is to make gold look bad.  That’s what the purpose of all these naked sales or contracts are to suppress the price (of gold and silver).   That’s the purpose of it. . . . Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday were three big sales back to back to back, which shows the captains of the dollar are panicking.  The dollar definitely looks like its rolling over and has been taking some fairly sizable drops intraday.”

Holter also contends, “The gold market is at an inflection point. The silver market is at an inflection point, and the stock market is at an inflection point.  There are inflection points everywhere, and the dollar is definitely starting to look weak.”

Holter says the financial and geopolitical landscape is a minefield that could detonate at any time. Holter says, “I have long said that because of the derivatives outstanding today, once something blows up, the whole system blows up within 48 hours.  The globe will spin twice, and basically the markets will close.   It really amazes me that there are so many potential fire events out there, and yet there is zero concern. . . . You are going to wake up one morning and something somewhere will have already happened.  At that point, it will be too late for you to do anything.  You are going to wake up and find out there was a dog fight between a Mig and U.S, fighter jet or a sub was sunk or a big bank becomes insolvent.  Who knows what it’s going to be or where it’s going to come from, there are just too many of them.  The point being is it’s here and now.  It’s a dry barn, and they are flicking matches all over the world.”…

Source: Captains of Dollar Are Panicked, US Govt Will Default -Bill Holter, Greg Hunter Video | Economy

‘Retail Bubble Has Now Burst’: Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017

Thousands of new doors opened and rents soared. This created a bubble, and like housing, that bubble has now burst.”

– Richard Hayne, Urban Outfitters CEO, March 2017

The devastation in the US retail sector is accelerating in 2017, and in addition to the surging number of brick and mortar retail bankruptcies, it is perhaps nowhere more obvious than in the soaring number of store closures.

While the shuttering of retail stores has been a frequent topic on this website, most recently in the context of the next “big short”, namely the ongoing deterioration in the mall REITs and associated Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and CDS, here is a stunning fact from Credit Suisse:“Barely a quarter into 2017, year-to-date retail store closings have already surpassed those of 2008.”

According to the Swiss bank’s calculations, on a unit basis, approximately 2,880 store closings were announced YTD, more than twice as many closings as the 1,153 announced during the same period last year. Historically, roughly 60% of store closure announcements occur in the first five months of the year. By extrapolating the year-to-date announcements, CS estimates that there could be more than 8,640 store closings this year, which will be higher than the historical 2008 peak of approximately 6,200 store closings, which suggests that for brick-and-mortar stores stores the current transition period is far worse than the depth of the credit crisis depression…

Source: ‘Retail Bubble Has Now Burst’: Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017 | Economy

Just How Overvalued Is The Market? Here Are 20 Metrics To Help You Decide | Zero Hedge

Despite the recent modest profit-taking in the S&P 500, the market – just shy of its all time high 2,400 level – remains in nosebleed valuation territory.

As Bank of America calculates, in March the S&P 500 forward P/E was little-changed amid a flat month for stocks, and at 17.5x continues to trade at its highest levels since 2002 (on a trailing basis P/E is at 19.6 and 29.0 based on the Shiller PE). This is almost one turn higher since we last performed a similar valuation exercise back in December.

Hardly a bargain, stocks remain stretched vs. history on the majority of metrics Bank of America tracks (Table 2) and as Savita Subramanian points out, the only way stocks still look cheap is relative to bonds. While BofA is quick to warn that today’s elevated valuations suggest longer-term caution on stocks, it reminds clients that “valuations typically matter little in the final stage of a bull market during which sentiment and positioning are the key drivers of returns.” This is also known as the so-called “just buy everything” cop out.

Stripping away BofA’s subjective commentary, to allow readers to decide for themselves whether stocks are massively overvalued and overbought, or perhaps cheap, here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 across a wide variety of valuation measures — 20 in total — to gauge whether US stocks look cheap vs. history.  What the analysis shows is that of 20 metrics, the S&P is overvalued based on 18 by as much as 85% (on a historical market cap to GDP basis) and up to 105% if looking at the S&P in WTI terms, and is cheap only according Price to Free Cash Flow (25.1x vs 28.4x) which however is a function of ultra low interest rates, and also based on a ratio of the S&P-to-Russell 2000 fwd PE multiples. A third metric which last December suggested stocks were “cheap“, namely trailing normalized PE (19.6x vs 19.0x average) flipped to “rich” in the past 5 months…

Source: Just How Overvalued Is The Market? Here Are 20 Metrics To Help You Decide | Zero Hedge