The unemployment rate has been a perfect forecaster of a recession in the past 70 years, and it appears to be edging closer to triggering that signal. “It’s never been wrong. It’s something to watch,” said Joseph Lavorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis.
As the unemployment rate hovers around 4% (the number reported in the mainstream media) a more accurate unemployment number is 8.1%. This takes into account those who have given up on finding work and those who are underemployed (workers who are part-time but want full-time employment), This more accurate unemployment number is called the U-6, while we often hear the U-3 reported on the news. But even former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says the U-6 is a much more accurate indicator of where things are with regards to the economy.
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