Though U.S. agricultural exports to China fell one-third in May due to trade war tensions, exports have recently surged beyond expectation due to the flooding of 433 rivers across China.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that pork, corn, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, and soybean exports to China from July 10 to 16 reached $32.9 billion, the Phase I annual rate as negotiated in January by the Trump Administration.

Donald Trump ran for President promising to close the $419.2 billion trade goods deficit by decreasing China’s $539.5 billion in exports to the United States with tariffs and increasing America’s $120.3 billion in exports to China. At the time, China’s average tariff on U.S. products was 8%, while the U.S. average tariff on China was 3.1%.

When the two parties called for a Phase 1 truce on Jan. 15, China had more than doubled its tariff rates on U.S. goods to 20.9%; but the Americans had spiked tariff rates on Chinese goods by seven times to 21%. The two-year deal required China to increase U.S. manufacturing, energy, and service purchases by $120 billion, but also required China to increase annual U.S. agricultural imports from $24 billion in 2017, to $32.9 billion in 2020, and $44.8 billion in 2021.

However, China blamed the pandemic for its failure to significantly increase U.S. agricultural imports, running merely at a $12 billion annual rate through the month of May, which is about a third of the level agreed upon in Phase I.

It is estimated that 45.2 million Chinese have already been affected by floods in 27 provinces along the Yangtze River, Huai River, and Yellow River. When Southern China was hit with a record-breaking 30-hour continuous rainfall reaching 16.8 inches beginning on July 4, China’s Meteorological Administration rolled out a “No. 1 Flood” warning.

With China’s heavy rainfall season running about 46% more severe than normal, and 17% more severe than the devastating floods of 1998, about 20% of the nation’s farmable land is now submerged. According to market analyst firm Seeking Alpha, this could lead to major crop loss this year, with rice, rapeseed, and cotton being the most affected. Moreover, the African swine fever pandemic, which caused 180 million infected pigs to die out last year, has returned as floods reached shallow graves and contaminated groundwater.

With no alternative nation capable of addressing the scale of its potential food security crisis this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that China bought 1.365 million tons of American corn on July 10. The large transaction was followed on July 14 with a single-day record purchase of 1.762 million metric tons of corn. The USDA added that China has quietly been buying substantial amounts of pork, sorghum, soybeans, and cotton since May.

#CCP #Flood #US
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