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Despite Skeptical Public, Gop Pushing Ahead On Tax cut Plan

Republicans are pushing full steam ahead on their tax cut plan, despite polling that shows more Americans oppose rather than supporting the sweeping proposal to reduce corporate rates and some individual tax bills.

In pushing so hard, Republicans are betting they can sell this plan to the skeptical public once the legislation is signed into law by President Trump and workers see a boost in take-home pay. They are not dismissive of the polling, but they believe they can make the legislation popular enough next year to save their congressional majorities in the midterm elections.

“I fundamentally believe when we do this — make good on our word, make good on our promise, make people’s lives better — we’re going to be just fine politically,” House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) told reporters the week before the House passed its tax-cut plan Nov. 16.

One can almost hear the echo of a previous House speaker pushing legislation in the early days of a new administration, as the proposal and the president started to grow unpopular.

“We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what’s in it,” Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), then the House speaker and now minority leader, said before final passage of the Affordable Care Act.

All your major questions about the House GOP tax plan answered

Pelosi’s opponents accused Democrats of approving a major law without ever reading it, taking her words out of context. What Pelosi was trying to say was quite similar to what Ryan is now saying: Once the law is passed and the public sees its impact, voters will like its benefits.

Instead, opponents branded the ACA as “Obamacare,” and it remained unpopular for most of Barack Obama’s presidency. In December 2009, after the House approved its version and the Senate was gearing up for a Christmas Eve vote, just 44 percent of voters supported the health proposal, and 51 percent opposed it, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The GOP tax proposal is slightly less popular at almost the same stage of the process: Just 33 percent of adults support Trump’s tax plan while 50 percent oppose it, according to this month’s Post-ABC News poll.

Support for the ACA barely moved ahead of the 2010 elections, and Democrats lost the House majority in a 63-seat blowout.

In 2016, Obama’s last year in office, the public began to appreciate the health law. By August of this year, after Republicans failed in their bid to repeal the law, 52 percent of voters supported the ACA and 39 percent opposed it, according to a Kaiser Health Tracking Poll.

Republicans can take some solace in that groundswell of ACA support, showing how the public can warm up to previously unpopular laws. The question for Republicans is whether, if they pass their tax plan, they can convince the public that it was a good thing to do in time for next year’s elections.

Democrats are driving home that the relief for corporate tax rates, from 35 percent down to 20 percent, is permanent, while the lower rates for individuals expire after 10 years. “Republicans are openly looting the hard-earned income of the American middle class to hand tax breaks to the wealthiest 1 percent and corporations,” Pelosi said.

To counter that charge, Republicans have been circulating data, polling and focus group feedback to win back the public on a traditional GOP issue. The key moves are talking about workers seeing more money in their paychecks and not focusing on large macroeconomic theory.

“As a stand-alone, tax reform is a moderate priority, but in its ability to impact the economy, jobs, and wages, it is a huge priority,” David Winston and Myra Miller, co-founders of the Winston Group, a Republican polling firm, wrote in a July memo.

Several of these Winston Group memos, sent to congressional leaders and K Street allies, were provided to The Washington Post by recipients who have been sharing the firm’s work to lawmakers unsteady in their support to shore up their vote and help them explain their decision to constituents.

Leader of key GOP super PAC warns lawmakers: Oppose tax bill at your peril

Republicans also believe taxes and the economy are a better issue set. In the Winston memo, voters chose Republicans by eight percentage points over Democrats to handle the economy and by four points on taxes, while Democrats held a margin of 12 percent on health care.

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