Is The RESET Far behind? Dr William B. Mount..
Is The RESET Far behind? Dr William B. Mount..
Gold and Silver production have fallen across the globe – by almost 20% over last year yet demand is skyrocketing. Banks are also buying as much Gold and Silver as they can…
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This was a holiday-shorted week, due to Good Friday, and we are posting this Monday evening due to today being a holiday in much of the world.
Gold and silver went up the dollar went down, +$33 and +$0.53 -64mg gold and -.05g silver. The prices of the metals in dollar terms are readily available, and the price of the dollar in terms of honest money can be easily calculated. The point of this Report is to look into the market to understand the fundamentals of supply and demand. This can’t necessarily tell you what the price will do tomorrow. However, it tells you where the price should be, if physical metal were to clear based on supply and demand.
Of course, two factors make this very interesting. One is that the speculators use leverage, and they can move the price around. At least for a while. The other is that the fundamentals change. There is no guarantee that the prices of the metals will reach the fundamental price of a given day. Think of the fundamentals as gravity, not the strongest force in the system but inexorable, tugging every day.
This week, the fundamentals of both metals moved, though not together. We will take a look at that below, but first, the price and ratio charts.
The Prices of Gold and Silver
Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It didn’t move much this week.
The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price
For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.
Here is the gold graph.
The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
The scarcity (i.e. the cobasis, the red line) is in a gentle rising trend for about six months. This week, the cobasis was down slightly. Not a surprise given the (relatively) big price move of +$33. Nor does it appear to break the trend.
Our calculated fundamental price of gold is at $1,301, just above the market price.
Now let’s look at silver.
The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
In silver, it’s much harder to say that there is an uptrend in the cobasis. Our indicator of scarcity is at the same level it was in October. Back then, the price of silver was $17.60 and on Thursday it was just about 90 cents higher.
The fundamental price back then was just under $15. Now it’s just under $16.50. This happens to be down about 40 cents this week.
With the fundamental of gold rising, and that of silver falling, it’s not surprising that the fundamental gold-silver ratio is up to a bit over 79.
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It’s a sort of tradition around here that whenever we have a three-day market holiday weekend, we try to check in with Jim Willie. And this time, we used our A2A webinar format so that subscribers of TFMR were able to ask their own questions in real time. It was great fun and I think you’ll find it all quite thought-provoking.
What topics did we discuss over this 97-minute call? Maybe a better question is…what topics did we not discuss? In this podcast you’ll here Jim pontificate on Trump, Syria, North Korea, gold, China, gold trade notes, silver, the mining shares, the Fed, debt jubilee, interest rates, the dollar, platinum and even his thoughts on Journey entering the Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame.
So sit back, relax and enjoy. And have a great holiday weekend, too.
Jim Willie is an original. If you want to be official about it, you can call Jim a “statistical analyst” as Jim has a PhD in statistics from Carnegie Mellon. Since 2004, however, he’s simply been known as “The Golden Jackass”.
Through his website http://www.goldenjackass.com/ Jim has developed a subscription-based newsletter service which is second-to-none in its quality and its “outside-the-box” thinking. Jim’s very affordable service, The Hat Trick Letter, can be found here: http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html
p.s. As you can tell by his bio picture, he has an extraordinarily large brain, which he uses to all of our benefit.